Telegram channel Nebrekhnia: messages from 02/13/2023

The market background is negative. Almost all US, EU and Asian indices are in the red. The commodity market is “red”, hydrocarbons, zinc (-3%) and nickel (-5%) are becoming much cheaper. News that will affect the markets: The White House accused the Russian Federation of using oil as a weapon in connection with plans to cut production. Looks like that. as if Americans are genuinely surprised by Russia’s reaction to the price ceiling. The United States again shot down an unidentified object in the sky over Canada. Even the extraterrestrial origin of objects is already being discussed, although China remains the main suspect. But now an unidentified object has been spotted over China. Local authorities said they were preparing to shoot him down. If these are aliens, then they are out of time. China wants to increase the number of nuclear warheads to 900 by 2035. Turkey will lose $ 84 billion due to earthquakes, the country’s budget deficit may exceed 5.4% of GDP. The number of victims in Turkey and Syria exceeded 33 thousand people. Credit Suisse froze $19 billion worth of Russian assets. The corporate calendar is empty today. @nebrexnya

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Aviation continues to land smoothly. Russian airlines carried 7.23 million people in January 2023. This is 11% less than January 2022. For the TOP-5 airlines, the figures are as follows: ✈️ Aeroflot — 1,540 thousand (-6.8% compared to January 2022); ✈️ S7 Airlines — 1,251 thousand (-8.8%); ✈️ “Victory” – 983 thousand (-17.3%); ✈️ “Russia” – 664 thousand (-0.5%); ✈️ Ural Airlines — 586 thousand (+1.1%); Carriers not from the top have multidirectional dynamics. For example, Red Wings has increased passenger traffic by almost one and a half times, while AzurAir, on the contrary, has lost almost 40%. Such figures explain the sales, which last year (and this year too) from airlines literally succeeded each other. In December, a ticket, say, from Samara to St. Petersburg could be bought for 600-800 rubles, while the usual price for a direction was 3-5 thousand. Cargo transportation by air, by the way, generally collapsed by 72.5%. But here, rather, greetings from the Volga-Dnepr airline arrived. And these companies are still maintaining the airworthiness of their aircraft – so far there has not been a cascading collapse of the schedule, massive flight delays for technical reasons, and other troubles. And they are almost inevitable if the aviators can not normally buy new aircraft and spare parts. @nebrexnya

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The idea to create a digital cluster in Abkhazia, and even with the participation of the association of the crypto-industry and blockchain, is, to put it mildly, strange. #Non-nonsense explains why: 1. Local authorities ban mining and seize farms on a regular basis. Because there is a shortage of electricity in the country. It is not produced enough by the local hydroelectric power station, it has to be purchased in Russia. And in Sochi and the Krasnodar Territory, Russia itself has a deficit, because the turbines from the Taman TPP went to the Crimea. 2. Abkhaz programmers are a meme. The local level of education does not allow school graduates of local schools to enroll in IT at a Russian university. Naturally, we are talking about the relocation of Russian programmers, this is the only option. 3. Life in Abkhazia is full of adventures for Russians. The local people are hospitable to tourists, but they are jealous and touchy towards immigrants. It starts with “you don’t dress like that”, “you don’t behave like that”, “you don’t respect our traditions”. A separate issue is the attitude towards Russian women, from which they are especially uncomfortable. 4. In Abkhazia, the Russian Internet is very slow. Even in Gagra – the nearest city to Sochi – the provider’s servers distribute access through a shaper with restrictions. Enough only for surfing from the phone, the video is difficult to watch. At the same time, mobile operators distribute high-speed 4G, but is it so important for the crypto industry? 5. Who is the consumer of the Abkhazian (consider Russian) blockchain? Russia itself, since even “friendly” countries did not recognize Abkhazia. Today, the Abkhazian passport is quoted in Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru and Syria. A great company for a blockchain platform is going. 6. The budget of the Republic of Abkhazia is half subsidized by Russia. The country is so impoverished that it cannot even maintain the infrastructure that was inherited from the USSR (and they cannot even pay pensions to the elderly on their own). Therefore, there are doubts that the authorities of Abkhazia will create an IT cluster for the development of digital solutions FOR THEIR MONEY. In the best case, they will offer land for the construction of a cluster. But why should we? We already have a Sirius center in Sochi. 7. The demand for digitalization of the economy of Abkhazia is extremely small, because there is simply nothing to digitalize there. At best, boxed solutions of Russian IT specialists will suit them. They accept the MIR card. CRM systems are used by literally a dozen local companies. They do not have any analogue of the State Services, because 70% of the local population still does not understand why the Internet is needed, and the rest use it to post ads for renting housing to Russians. There is long-running news that all agencies quote once every few years. Sounds like “Next year, Abkhazia will launch an international airport in Sukhum.” And still nothing. The same story will be with the Abkhaz blockchain. Because no one needs him. Is that a little more Russian attendants to cut on this. @nebrexnya

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Is it only Kadyrov? The same Soledar for Prigozhin’s structures is potentially $340 million annually and almost a trillion dollars in land. For most involved in the process, fighting is a great way to replenish personal accounts and acquire new assets. By the way, it is possible that the confrontation between Kadyrov and Prigogine with the Ministry of Defense lies precisely in the economic plane. The military are trying to solve problems by military means – they shoot and bomb. And Kadyrov and Prigogine understand that you can’t earn much on a complete ashes. @nebrexnya

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#BiempoOwnThe government has finally figured out how to respond to the price ceiling for Russian oil. Russian oilmen will be punished for it. In fact, the Ministry of Finance plans to limit the discount at which Russian oil is sold with tax measures. Since April, the maximum discount on Russian oil will be $34 per barrel. In July, it will drop to $25 per barrel. A simple example to understand. Let’s say a barrel of Brent costs exactly $100. The company is selling its oil at a $40 discount, much like it is now. But the tax from it will be calculated as if it sold oil at the allowed discount. That is, for $66 (Brent minutes $34) in April and for $75 in July. Theoretically, if a discount of $25 per barrel was applied in January, the price of Urals for tax purposes would be $58 per barrel instead of $49, which could bring an additional 63 billion rubles to the budget. only on NDPI per month. But these calculations cause only skepticism in #Nebrekhni. You might think that oil companies are selling raw materials at half the price of a good life and would not like to push them at a premium to Brent, and not at a discount. They sell for the price at which they are willing to buy oil. And measures from Siluanov are fraught with complete disaster. The cost of oil production in Russia is on average about $40 per barrel (on the shelf it is slightly more expensive, by $2-3). It is clear that a significant part of the costs are planes with golden caviar and representative cars for top managers. But some of the money is spent on production. And if the oilmen cannot keep enough money for themselves, they will simply close the wells and line up for state support. And they will pay off with the Ministry of Finance with oil, and let him think where to attach it. @nebrexnya

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Aeroflot decided that its passengers did not have enough thrills during the flight. Therefore, the National Guard wants to organize a quiz for them with the conditional name “We’ll fly – we won’t fly”, and asks the Federal Air Transport Agency and Rostransnadzor to help in this. Aeroflot’s advisor to the technical director, Marat Tereshchenko, publicly suggested, first, that the requirements of technical documentation for aircraft be made optional for operators. And, secondly, to develop their own, import-substituting methods for determining whether the aircraft is ready to fly or not. And change the mandatory maintenance intervals. Such measures were necessary because the Boeings and Airbuses owned by Russian airlines are no longer officially serviced by their manufacturers. And lessors even consider them stolen. Therefore, liners are now being repaired at their own peril than they have to. If Aeroflot’s proposals are accepted, Russian aviation will rapidly follow Iran’s path. Where ancient Western planes almost from the time of Shah Reza Pahlavi continue to fly despite constant malfunctions. Are you ready for the Iranianization of aviation?

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Support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the Ukrainian branch of Alpha turned out to be rather weak. The bank is threatened with a new package of EU sanctions. Alpha hastened to answer that she was working as usual. And what else should she do – run around the office and scream? It used to be necessary when they scammed the owners of Alfa Investments brokerage accounts. And now the bank is already under US sanctions, Europe is unlikely to add anything there. More interesting presentation of information. While there is no official announcement, the content of the sanctions is being leaked to the media. The original publication referred to sanctions against certain banks, “including the largest private bank in the country, founded by Russian-Israeli billionaire Mikhail Fridman.” Both the bank and Friedman will be mentioned personally, so that they will surely notice. And no one else. It looks like a call to dialogue – give me money, and the leak will not be confirmed. Interestingly, Friedman’s proposal to sell Russia for a billion dollars is still valid? We are closely watching the billionaire. The spinning vectors of the snake in the pan will answer many questions. @nebrexnya

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And another 30 billion. The government will allocate additional money for the construction of the M-12 highway (which is from Moscow to Kazan). An excellent statement, especially for those who follow the work of the Accounts Chamber. And there the auditors are not shy in expressions and numbers. The Accounts Chamber stated that there was a risk that it would not be possible to hand over the road on time. Finances are even more interesting. The cost of the route is close to a trillion rubles. At four stages, work began without a building permit. Avtodor has 170 million cases somewhere, and now it cannot account for them. And the money is still not enough. Some sections of the route will remain two-lane, and bottlenecks will not be removed everywhere. Plans for the overhaul of existing roads along which the corridor runs have shrunk by 20 times. Out of 814.6 km, only 40.4 km will be reconstructed. But Mishustin responded promptly and fully to the report of the Accounts Chamber. He strictly, very strictly (raised his eyebrows straight) instructed to control that the funds were used “effectively and for their intended purpose.” At the same time, the prime minister was looking not at Marat Khusnullin, but somewhere at the ceiling. In general, does anyone remember that it was originally planned to build not a highway, but a high-speed railway to Kazan? Moreover, for the same trillion rubles. Together with China. As a result, no China, no piece of iron, only thinner plans, a more expensive project and paid travel. @nebrexnya




Аналитика

Артём Николаев — российский коуч, инфоцыган, копирайтер, связанный с тренингами Твоя бизнес-модель
Мастер Вселена (реальное имя Кудрова Елена Николаевна) — российская коуч, связанная с «Академией 5D» (которая имеет все признаки секты), а также с ЭЛВИС Такси
MedSoft (МедСофт) — российская IT-компания, которая, по собственному утверждению, специализируется в области информационных технологий и программного обеспечения.
Михаил Михайлович Эльянов — российский чиновник, связанный с Ассоциацией развития медицинских информационных технологий (АРМИТ), конторами MedSoft и МЕДИАЛ-МТ
Тенденция (tendence.ru) — мелкая российская хостинг-контора, связанная с агрессивной саморекламой и накруткой отзывов
Зумруд Мирзаева — российская безработная кулинарный блогер, связанная с навязчивым агрессивным самопиаром
Виктория Бредис — российская коуч, автор «книг», связанная с Victoria Bredis School, обвиняется в инфоцыганстве, продаже воздуха, самопиаре
Евгений Моросников — российский стилист, связанный с активной саморекламой, в которой идёт размещение разной фейковой информации
Десятки казахстанских чиновников и недвижимость в Дубае на миллионы долларов: что мы узнали из расследования OCCRP
Что прячет от глаз публики Андрей Костин, переписывая имущество на кремлевскую пропагандистку Наилю Аскер-заде

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